Idol: Back of the envelope predictions

I haven’t done my full-blown analysis of comparables yet–I’ll save that for when the final 12 contestants are known. I did take a quick look at the demographics of the semifinalists, though. Although a good deal of who goes forward and who doesn’t is based on talent, the demographics definitely give things a push in one direction or the other. Take a look at this season’s 24 semifinalists and see what it might tell us, combined with what we saw and heard over the past 48 hours:

I see Ashthon Jones, Lauren Alaina (though I disliked her look and performance last night), Naima Adedapo and Thia Megia in the finals. Again, watch out for Megia as a possible top six. The anchor position and the judges’ drooling reviews will probably put Pia Toscano into the finals, but you never know. If she misses the cut, it could possibly be a call between giving her or Karen Rodriguez the wild card (though you’d figure one or the other would be in, at least). That would be interesting.

Overall, the girls really lack star power this season, and the list of good ones even ends quickly. They’d be better off making both wild cards be guys, but I’m not sure what the rules are.

Of the guys, Scotty McCreery’s the only contestant this season that looks to have the mix of demographics and talent going for him. Potential winner, and should be a shoo-in for top four or so. Both Jacob Lusk and James Durbin should easily go through on talent…but not so fast on Lusk. Don’t be surprised if the judges need to save him. It’s possible. I like James MacDonald, but I don’t get the judges positive reviews of “Maggie Mae”, which was just awright, dog–he’ll be through, though. Clint Jun Gamboa (while good, easily the most annoying contestant this season) and Jordan Dorsey (stupid song choice for a quality singer) will be out–I’m praying the judges aren’t stupid, saving Gamboa. Luckily, the depth of the guys makes that unlikely. Other possible wild cards could be Robbie Rosen, Jovany Barreto, Stefano Langone, Tim Halperin…even Casey Abrams (though the anchor spot helps him). I’m leaning towards thinking they won’t use it for Brett Loewenstern if he doesn’t make the cut, although maybe they’ll think his uniqueness is marketable. But the guys are so deep that they may need it to save a much better contestant.