I’ve had my eye on the potential Original Six matchup of Chicago-Montreal for a while now. Let’s see if it comes to pass.
Philadelphia Flyers vs. Montreal Canadiens
I’ve read in many places about what an unlikely matchup this was. Really, the only exceptionally tough hurdle to this matchup was Montreal’s defeat of Washington, unquestionably the strongest team in the NHL throughout the regular season. But if you paid attention to how teams played in the second half of the season, you’d have noticed that–aside from the Capitals–that the Flyers and Canadiens had the best second halves of all the Eastern Conference playoff teams. Philly’s had an easy road, against a flagging Devil team who were a bad matchup against them, followed by a Boston team that was fortunate to be in the playoffs, let alone in the second round.
It’s a contrast in styles, that’s for sure. Big, physical, and fast against small, smart, and speedy. I’d have picked Montreal in a second over Boston, but Philadelphia’s much more of a wild card – Obviously not the opponent that Washington was, but a tougher matchup than records and conventional stats might indicate. As I’ve written in several articles about the Flyers this year, their offense can run very hot (Capitals hot) or very cold (Boston/Edmonton cold) for weeks at a time. If we get the hot Flyers for this whole series, they definitely can win. In fact, the hot Flyers can definitely win in the Finals as well. Unfortunately, the Flyers haven’t been hot for all of a 20 game stretch at any point this season. This, incidentally, is why I didn’t pick Philadelphia as my Stanley Cup dark horse–I considered them, along with Montreal–because over the course of four series, they’re bound to stink one up.
One way the Flyers might win is by pummeling the Habs into submission. While hockey isn’t as physical a sport as football or rugby–where a physically imposing team can make a talent gap disappear by punishing the opposition, Montreal and Philadelphia are extremes in physicality.
But are the Flyers too slow on defense to keep up with the Canadiens? I saw Philadelphia drop a stinker to the Islanders in March and it was small, fast, hard working forwards that did Philly in that night.
While both teams had top 5 regular season power play percentages, Montreal’s PPG were diminished by a lack of opportunities. Philadelphia may play into Montreal’s hands here, if they allow more opportunities than the Canadiens would normally see, through undisciplined play.
Finally, while any key injury would hurt, let’s not forget that Philadelphia is playing with their last NHL caliber goaltender. An injury to Leighton–just returned to game shape in time to step into the Bruins series–and this series ends in a TKO.
Looking forward, the winner of this series should ideally look to close it out in no more than six games, to allow for a little breather before heading into the Finals as an underdog.
Montreal in 6.
San Jose Sharks vs. Chicago Blackhawks
I’ll admit that I’m far less familiar with the Western Conference finalists than the Eastern Conference finalists.
-Both teams have players with reputations for postseason difficulties, though the Sharks may have more: Hossa vs. Nabokov and Thornton are the main ones that come to mind. The “clutchness” and heroics of Sharks like Joe Pavelski seem to have offset some of this bad karma.
-The Blackhawks are perceived to be a physical team, but by the imperfect measure of Hits, they really haven’t been tenderizing their opponents as much as you’d think. Douglas Murray is a tough customer on the other side of the ice.
-With plenty of firepower on both sides of the ice, I’ll give my slight edge in goaltending to the hot and cold play of Antti Niemi over the mentally fragile Evgeni Nabokov. Nabokov’s had a great season–assuming you don’t count the Olympics–but has been trailing off a bit.
Chicago in 6 (If they don’t win in six, San Jose will hold serve at home in Game 7).
Habs in six + Hawks in six = Original six for the Stanley Cup Finals.