A couple of months ago in an article for ESPN Insider and Puck Prospectus, I made the bold prediction that the chronically fragile Marian Gaborik would stay healthy, play at an unprecedented level and win the Hart Trophy as the NHL’s most valuable player – that on the Rangers, an offensively-weak, borderline-playoff contender. Over Alex Ovechkin and all other challengers.
During New York’s recent scoring drought–which dramatically ended with 6-2 and 8-2 trouncings of Montreal and Tampa Bay–Gaborik’s production and shooting percentage have fallen off marginally. So let’s take a look to see if the Slovakian sniper still has a case:
Goals Versus Threshold (prior to last two games): 12.9 – 8th amongst skaters, though leaders come from elite teams: Chicago, San Jose, Washington, Pittsburgh, Vancouver
Goals per game: 0.60 – 5th (only Kovalchuk is from a non-elite team)
Points per game: 1.27 – 5th (only Kovalchuk is from a non-elite team)
Additionally, Gaborik’s higher-than-career 16.3% shooting percentage is a positive indicator that his hip remains in good shape.
What makes Gaborik more valuable than the other contending skaters–and remember that the Hart historically goes to skaters except in some cases where a goaltender has been incredibly dominant in comparison–is how reliant the Blue Shirts are on him. My colleague at Puck Prospectus, Tom Awad, pointed out a few weeks ago that Gaborik was within shouting distance of Mario Lemieux’s record of contributing on 57.3% of his team’s goals in 1988-89. Yes, the percentage has fallen off, but Gaborik still leads the NHL:
| Points/Team’s GF among top scorers | ||||
| Name | Team | Points | Team GF | Points/GF |
| Marian Gaborik | NYR | 61 | 135 | 45% |
| Henrik Sedin | VAN | 67 | 155 | 43% |
| Sidney Crosby | PIT | 63 | 163 | 39% |
| Ilya Kovalchuk | ATL | 56 | 153 | 37% |
| Zach Parise | NJD | 47 | 131 | 36% |
| Alex Ovechkin | WSH | 65 | 185 | 35% |
Without Gaborik, the Rangers might already be on the verge of throwing in the towel for the season – the position teams like the Thrashers find themselves in. If you ask me, I’ll tell you that Marian Gaborik is still on track to be the 2009-10 Hart Trophy winner.
While Gaborik is still a nice dark-horse candidate, if the award doesn’t go to one of the Usual Suspects (Crosby, Ovechkin), the line will probably start with Henrik Sedin and Patrick Marleau – they have great narratives (voters love that) and will likely be more in the spotlight come voting time.
I agree that Henrik Sedin will be in the MVP discussion, but even he plays with a much better player–twin brother Daniel–than “poor Marian” does. How can you seriously mention Marleau? – you can’t separate Marleau from Thornton from Heatley – Apparently even on the Canadian Olympic team. Ultimately, I don’t think Gaborik will win if he falls too far behind in counting stats, but how could you deny his utmost importance–valuableness–to the Rangers–in comparison to the other candidates–if New York just ekes into the playoffs, with Gaborik contributing on nearly half the goals?
Gaborik has been great. I’m just looking into narrative – that’s what sportswriters love. And the Hart is voted for by the sportswriters.
Henrik proved his value when holding up the team when brother Daniel was hurt for 6 weeks or so. Marleau did what he did after losing the captaincy in the off-season. Many expected him to flat-line, but he has shone. Obviously he had/has help, but it makes great copy. Garobik is all alone. His team, outside of his goalie, sucks. And the Rangers have been so inconsistent, his story can get subsumed.
Timo – I’m a narrative guy. The story comes first – the story builds the interest – the numbers help to explain them and/or back them up.
I think you’re trying to rationalize an argument that is slipping away from you. Gaborik may have been in the mix at one point but is unlikely to be a finalist when the smoke clears. The days of giving the award to the most significant player on a bubble playoff team are gone, I’m afraid (Jose Theodore, where are you?). If Marleau continues to lead the league in goal scoring, he’ll be in the discussion but, then again, that’s what the Richard Trophy is for these days. More realistic group of finalists: Sedin, Ovechkin and Crosby.
Ken,
You’re absolutely right that it’s slipping away – Gaborik’s MVP, my prediction…heck, the Blue Shirts’ playoff chances as well. As I mentioned on the John DiTullio Show, I was there first hand to see the Rangers against the Penguins at MSG on Monday…and I’m completely puzzled by New York’s offense, especially in relation to Gaborik’s use. Gaborik needs Prospal to distribute the puck, Dubinsky to muck and grind – Gaborik should not be camped out behind the net a la Gretzky – he’s a lethal shooter, not an elite playmaker. I stick by my guns that Gaborik could and should be having an MVP season. Healthwise, he’s okay for the first time as a veteran, so if they’d just stick some first line players with him–imagine switching Dany Heatley for Marian Gaborik and seeing the effect on individual fortunes–he could really produce. Realistically, the opponent doesn’t need to game plan around (literally) anyone else. He does look beaten down – I didn’t see any of his speed displayed against Pittsburgh (I’ve been asked about residual effects of the Carcillo tussle). It seems that Sather has been slow to get any desparately needed reinforcements in at forward (God save Team USA, going with two of New York’s “top six” forwards for Vancouver) but I don’t think he can wait much longer, with seemingly half a dozen teams tied for the eighth seed and the Fire Sather (not Tortorella, mind you) chants getting louder and louder (and a Fire Sather rally being planned for outside MSG for March 7th). Anyway, it’s a long season and anything’s possible. I imagine that New York will change their mix; if they do make the playoffs, you’ll have to consider Gaborik as MVP as he will have had a proportionately large impact towards it.
By the way, how are my Pens in 7 and Myers for Calder (mid-November) predictions doing?
Thanks for your comments!