Riffing on the Sabres theme this week, we’re proud present the first look at 2009-10 Even Strength Total Rating (ESTR):
| Even Strength Total Rating, Buffalo Sabres | |||||
| Name | Pos | ESOR | ESDR | ESTR | ESTOI |
| Patrick Kaleta | RW | +0.18 | +0.95 | +1.13 | 286 |
| Tim Connolly | C | +0.78 | +0.22 | +1.00 | 556 |
| Nathan Paetsch | D | +0.13 | +0.68 | +0.81 | 82 |
| Henrik Tallinder | D | +0.54 | +0.23 | +0.77 | 737 |
| Toni Lydman | D | +0.05 | +0.66 | +0.70 | 446 |
| Tyler Myers | D | +0.52 | +0.13 | +0.65 | 740 |
| Matt Ellis | LW | -0.54 | +1.08 | +0.54 | 326 |
| Jason Pominville | RW | +0.29 | +0.23 | +0.52 | 555 |
| Jochen Hecht | C | +0.37 | +0.09 | +0.45 | 588 |
| Derek Roy | C | +0.12 | +0.05 | +0.18 | 577 |
| Steve Montador | D | -0.14 | +0.21 | +0.07 | 713 |
| Mike Grier | RW | -0.20 | +0.24 | +0.04 | 458 |
| Drew Stafford | RW | +0.42 | -0.40 | +0.03 | 486 |
| Tim Kennedy | LW | -0.09 | +0.02 | -0.08 | 549 |
| Andrej Sekera | D | -0.08 | +0.00 | -0.08 | 422 |
| Thomas Vanek | LW | +0.19 | -0.31 | -0.13 | 484 |
| Paul Gaustad | C | -0.43 | +0.27 | -0.15 | 366 |
| Adam Mair | C | -0.69 | +0.33 | -0.36 | 254 |
| Craig Rivet | D | -0.64 | +0.00 | -0.64 | 605 |
| Clarke MacArthur | LW | -0.46 | -0.68 | -1.14 | 530 |
| Chris Butler | D | -0.83 | -0.75 | -1.58 | 467 |
| Stats through 1/11/2010 | |||||
As a reminder, ESTR is the number of goals per 60 minutes that the player was better (+) or worse (-) than an average NHL player for that season–total offensive and defensive contribution–taking into account strength of teammates and opposition on ice. You’ll see that there is significant correlation between ESTR and GVT (take a look at “Sabremetrics” at Puck Prospectus this week), of course keeping in mind that ESTR is a rate stat and GVT is a counting stat.
Patrick Kaleta is the surprise leader in ESTR on the Sabres; Tim Connolly is repeating his fine performance from 2008-9; the defensive quartet of Nathan Paetsch, Henrik Tallinder, Toni Lydman and Tyler Myers are obviously supporting Ryan Miller on one of the finest defensive squads in the league. Chris Butler, who scored well by ESTR last season, probably needs a trip back to the Portland Pirates to get his head straight; otherwise his status as one of Buffalo’s top prospects is going to start to slip away.
Tune in to hear me on Tuesdays at 4:45 pm on the John DiTullio show online at http://www.whtk.com/pages/johnditullio.html and on 1280 WHTK and FM 107.3 in Rochester.
See the Glossary for a definition of the other metrics.