Welcome to Ice Hockey Metrics: Intro to ESTR

Ever wondered how to best evaluate the performance of a hockey player? Points? Plus/minus rating? Of course not. More advanced metrics? Now we’re getting there…

We’ll try to tackle that question here at Ice Hockey Metrics.

One measure we’re developing is Total Rating (TR), which will look at Even Strength, Power Play, and Short Handed contributions. I can currently give you a taste of how we’re building up to that, by looking at the Even Strength Total Rating (ESTR) for the 2008-2009 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

For our example, we’ll look at the Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins’ postseason ESTR, to see who was most and least valuable per 60 minutes of ES ice time, fully compensating for TOI and quality of teammates and opposition:

Even Strength Total Rating, Pittsburgh Penguins, Playoffs 2008-9

Name Pos ESTR Std GD/60
Ruslan Fedotenko LW +1.32 +1.60
Bill Guerin RW +1.07 +1.50
Sidney Crosby C +0.89 +1.26
Hal Gill D +0.51 +0.45
Maxime Talbot C +0.50 +0.59
Kris Letang D +0.40 +0.72
Chris Kunitz LW +0.38 +0.70
Evgeni Malkin C +0.31 +0.63
Rob Scuderi D +0.24 +0.14
Miroslav Satan RW +0.24 +0.40
Sergei Gonchar D +0.15 +0.51
Marc-Andre Fleury G +0.09 +0.25
Mark Eaton D +0.03 +0.32
Mathieu Garon G +0.00 +0.00
Tyler Kennedy C -0.27 -0.37
Brooks Orpik D -0.29 -0.14
Matt Cooke LW -0.65 -0.76
Jordan Staal C -0.69 -0.81
Craig Adams RW -1.15 -1.38
Petr Sykora RW -1.61 -1.79
Philippe Boucher D -1.77 -1.48
Pascal Dupuis RW -2.17 -2.47
Alex Goligoski D -3.77 -4.52

*Stats above exclude empty net goals

You didn’t expect to see Ruslan Fedotenko (+1.32 goal difference per 60 minutes of even strength time, normalizing for average linemates and opposition) at the top of the list, did you? I’ve written before (though it lies on the cutting room floor) that maybe Evgeni Malkin (+0.31) should let Fedotenko borrow the Conn Smythe trophy one day a week – Maybe it should be more like 5 days a week!

It’s also interesting to see Sid the Kid (+0.89) come in higher than Gino, as well as Finals hero Max Talbot (+0.50). We forget how good Crosby was for three rounds before fading against the Red Wings.

4 Responses to “Welcome to Ice Hockey Metrics: Intro to ESTR”

  1. Frederick says:

    I find it noteworthy that there are no Finns on their roster. Are there any metrics to explain why this is the case?

  2. Mike says:

    I think they were all finally killed off during a heat wave this July where temperatures reached the low 20s.

  3. Barnilate says:

    There is a .9921 correlation between ESTR & Std GD/60…. interesting.

  4. R.A. Wagman says:

    Would love to see more of a “How the sausage is made” type of article