The Edmonton Oilers are well known to have some of the most loyal and stats saavy hockey fans out there. In a recent comment, blogger Greg asked how Oilers’ players fared by Even Strength Total Rating last season. Here are Edmonton’s best skaters for 2008-9, for players with more than 500 minutes at Even Strength:
| Name | Pos | ESTOI | ESOR | ESDR | ESTR |
| Dustin Penner | RW | 922 | +0.59 | +0.35 | +0.93 |
| Lubomir Visnovsky | D | 873 | +0.17 | +0.52 | +0.68 |
| Denis Grebeshkov | D | 1174 | +0.78 | -0.20 | +0.58 |
| Robert Nilsson | C | 810 | +0.33 | +0.15 | +0.48 |
| Sam Gagner | C | 1020 | +0.25 | +0.05 | +0.29 |
| Shawn Horcoff | C | 1146 | +0.08 | +0.20 | +0.27 |
| Ales Hemsky | RW | 1030 | +0.12 | +0.04 | +0.16 |
| Tom Gilbert | D | 1355 | +0.43 | -0.33 | +0.10 |
| Sheldon Souray | D | 1332 | -0.13 | +0.21 | +0.08 |
| Andrew Cogliano | C | 972 | -0.09 | +0.10 | +0.01 |
| Patrick O’Sullivan | C | 1149 | +0.13 | -0.13 | +0.00 |
| Marc-Antoine Pouliot | C | 650 | +0.04 | -0.05 | -0.01 |
| Kyle Brodziak | C | 780 | -0.14 | -0.02 | -0.16 |
| Ales Kotalik | RW | 944 | +0.02 | -0.30 | -0.28 |
| Ethan Moreau | LW | 968 | -0.27 | -0.05 | -0.32 |
| Ladislav Smid | D | 847 | -0.23 | -0.11 | -0.34 |
| Jason Strudwick | D | 797 | -0.47 | +0.10 | -0.37 |
| Steve Staios | D | 1278 | -0.41 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
The value of Patrick O’Sullivan, who began the season with Los Angeles, is a bit higher than shown due to his excellent net penalty performance, +1.3 per 60 minutes, giving him roughly a quarter of a goal per 60 minutes bump. Incidentally, I’m not sure how the Oilers were ruining Erik Cole, but at least they got a good player like O’Sullivan out of the three-way deal. Then, there’s the Kings…
Who doesn’t show up on the list above? Zack Stortini, who was a nice contributor on my fantasy team last season due to a combination of fisticuffs with a few goals thrown in. Stortini, whose standard stat line was 6 G, 5 A, 11 P, -3 plus/minus, 181 PIM in 52 GP, was -0.48 ESTR at 375 minutes ESTOI.
**Check out my preview of the New York Islanders, just posted over at Puck Prospectus**
Interesting stuff, Timo. Very good analysis. And I totally agree with you on Erik Cole. No one was sobbing harder when he was sent packing. Even though he wasn’t contributing on the score sheet enough (like many here), he was still a solid defensive force, and very good checker. Would have loved to have seen them give him more of a chance, but you’re right.. O’Sullivan is a good trade for him.
Timo, thank you again so much for emailing me this data. I’ve sent you an email with the link for my blog post highlighting your data. Initially, it seems that many people are surprised to see both Dustin Penner (less so) and Robert Nilsson ranked number 1 and 2 (forward skaters) respectively based on the ESTR metric.
Random thoughts: It seems that a lot of Edmonton’s problems were on special teams, not even strength: PP% was 23rd and PK was 27th. ESTR indicates that the Gagner-Cogliano-Nilsson line was better than average, but not superior by any stretch of the imagination. Nilsson was a 1st round draft choice after all, and has NHL bloodlines. He strikes me as a smart, opportunistic player, without high end skills. Without having watched Penner as much as you all have, I’m not sure what to make of his time when he was dropped down to the 4th line. Did he make hay then? – although ESTR would deduct for production against poor opposition.
Overall, Edmonton strikes me as a team with a lot of decent players, but few above average players. ESTR bears that out, and being right on the playoff bubble bears that out.
Timo, overall I have to agree with you on both counts. Edmonton does seem to be a team with a lot of decent players, but few above average players (forward skaters).
Edmonton was 15th overall in the league at even strength.. yet, we we’re 28th in the league with respect to power play/penalty kill goal differential.
With Penner, from what I recall, he seemed to be on the ice for a higher GF/20 when he played with better teammates against tough opposition than we he had lower quality linemates with softer opposition.