Who was the best overall player in the NHL last season? Pavel Datsyuk, of course. Right? No? Evgeni Malkin? Alexander Ovechkin? Sidney Crosby? Here’s your first look at the Even Strength Total Rating for the 2008-9 regular season:
Even Strength Total Rating, Regular Season 2008-9
| Rank | Name | Team | Pos | ESTR |
| 1 | Patrik Berglund | STL | C | +2.02 |
| 2 | T.J. Oshie | STL | C | +1.55 |
| 3 | Tomas Holmstrom | DET | LW | +1.53 |
| 4 | Tim Connolly | BUF | C | +1.52 |
| 5 | Blake Wheeler | BOS | RW | +1.48 |
| 6 | Alex Tanguay | MTL | LW | +1.45 |
| 7 | Michael Ryder | BOS | RW | +1.45 |
| 8 | David Perron | STL | LW | +1.44 |
| 9 | Bobby Ryan | ANA | RW | +1.43 |
| 10 | David Krejci | BOS | C | +1.42 |
| 11 | Travis Zajac | NJD | C | +1.40 |
| 12 | Ruslan Fedotenko | PIT | LW | +1.40 |
| 13 | Stephen Weiss | FLA | C | +1.35 |
| 14 | Alexander Semin | WSH | RW | +1.33 |
| 15 | Martin Havlat | CHI | RW | +1.31 |
| 16 | Pavel Datsyuk | DET | C | +1.30 |
| 17 | Zach Parise | NJD | LW | +1.26 |
| 18 | Daniel Sedin | VAN | LW | +1.23 |
| 19 | Marian Hossa | DET | RW | +1.21 |
| 20 | Rene Bourque | CGY | LW | +1.17 |
*Only players with at least 500:00 ESTOI included.
ESTR is comparable to GD/60, taking into account strength of teammates and opposition for all goals. Empty net goals are disregarded.
Why is Alex Tanguay still unsigned? Anyone??
What’s the ESTR based upon? I always equated +/- to even strength activity.
The purpose of Even Strength Total Rating, ESTR, is essentially the same as plus/minus rating -to give an overall offensive/defensive value to a player- but it’s a quantum leap forward. The problems with plus/minus? Doesn’t account for TOI, strength of teammates, or strength of opponents. Pretty big problems.
ESTR is the most advanced measurement of its kind that I know of, to deal with strength of teammates and strength of opponents on every goal that the player was on the ice.
The next step you’ll see is TR, Total Rating, which will also take into account the players’ contributions on the power play and short handed, accounting for what baseline production is, TOI, strength of teammates, and strength of opponents. TR will therefore be a further improvement on plus/minus rating, taking into account PP and SH contributions as well.
We want to verify that ESTR is in good shape before moving onto PPTR (Power Play Total Rating), SHTR (Short Handed Total Rating) and TR. We’ll also work in contributions of taking and drawing penalties, and of shootout performance.
In short, ESTR is Goal Difference per 60 minutes of ESTOI, adjusted for strength of opponents and strength of teammates.
So, the next question would be: How is strength of opponents and teammates measured, and how is its interaction with TOI factored?
Is there a formula that’s fit for public consumption? Or is it in the process of being copyright protected?
And don’t get me started on the phrase “quantum leap”!
The fact that it’s a rate stat -”per 60″- accounts for TOI. I like rate stats, most folks out there love the counting stats.
The starting point is looking at GF/60 and GA/60 of all the players on the ice, for each goal.