Odd competition this year in that I have a hard time seeing most of these contestants having a legit shot to win. In any case, let’s give this a whirl again:

Jeremy Rosado, 19 year old from Valrico, Florida

Hopes to be more like Anthony Federov (4th place, Season 4) than Jorge Nunez (12th/13th place, Season 8).

But the latter sounds about right.

Prediction: 13th place

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Erica Van Pelt, 26 year old from South Kingstown, Rhode Island

Hopes to be more like Lakisha Jones (4th place, Season 6) than Julia DeMatio (10th place, Season 2).

But might have more in common with semifinalists Sabrina Sloan (Season 6) and Jennifer Hirsh (Season 11). Weird wild card by the judges.

Prediction: 12th place

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Shannon Magrane, 16 year old from Tampa, Florida

Hopes to be more like Lauren Alaina (2nd place, Season 10) than Melissa McGhee (12th place, Season 5).

But McGhee is from Tampa as well.

Prediction: 11th place

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Deandre Brackensick, 17 year old from San Jose, California

Hopes to be more like Corey Clark (5th place, Season 2) than A.J. Gill (8th place, Season 1) but he might not even make it that far.

Pretty random comparable: Sanjaya Malakar (7th place, Season 6)

Prediction: 10th place

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Elise Testone, 28 year old from Charleston, South Carolina

Hopes to be more like Nikki McKibbin (3rd place, Season 1) than Didi Benami (10th place, Season 9), but none of her Finalist comparables are close to her age. Ruh-roh.

Semifinalist comparables: In-comparables such as Jackie Tohn (Season 8), Haley Johnsen (Season 11), Samantha Cohen (Season 2).

Prediction: 9th place

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Joshua Ledet, 19 year old from Westlake, Louisiana

Hopes to be more like Jacob Lusk (5th place, Season 10) than Chikezie (10th place, Season 7).

But he’s skinnier than both of those guys.

Prediction: 8th place

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Jermaine Jones, 25 year old from Pine Hill, New Jersey

Hopes to be more like Michael Lynche (4th place, Season 9) than Charles Grigsby (11th place, Season 2).

Yes, Ruben Studdard (1st place, Season 2) was 25 and is a comparable. But no.

Prediction: 7th place

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Skylar Laine, 18 year old from Brandon, Mississippi

Hopes to be more like Diana DeGarmo (2nd place, Season 3) than Kristy Lee Cook (7th place, Season 7).

She’s got several 17-19 year old comparables in the bottom half of the Finals, though.

Prediction: 6th place

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Hollie Cavanaugh, 18 year old from McKinney, Texas

Hopes to be more like Jordin Sparks (1st place, Season 6) than Kellie Pickler (6th place, Season 5).

Frankly, most of her 18ish comparables finished in the bottom half of the Finals, but none were from her neck of the woods.

Prediction: 5th place

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Phillip Phillips, 21 year old from Leesburg, Georgia

Hopes to be more like Chris Daughtry (4th place, Season 5) than Casey Abrams (6th place, Season 10).

Remember, despite the guitar, David Cook, Kris Allen, and Lee DeWyze did not come up as comparables.

Prediction: 4th place

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Colton Dixon, 2o year old from Murfreesboro, Tennessee

Hopes to be more like Blake Lewis (2nd place, Season 6) than Casey Abrams (6th place, Season 10).

We know what to do with the guitar-playing guys, but the piano throws me off.

Prediction: 3rd place

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Heejun Han, 22 year old from New York City, New York

Hopes to be more like Joshua Gracin (4th place, Season 2) than Anoop Desai (6th/7th place, Season 8).

But I think he breaks the mold. No comparable. Actually–maybe William Hung, but only on the comic appeal level. Everything else is Idol.

Prediction: 2nd place

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Jessica Sanchez, 16 year old from San Diego, California

Hopes to be more like Jordin Sparks (1st place, Season 8 ) than Allison Iraheta (4th place, Season 8).

Another high one: Jasmine Trias (3rd place, Season 3)

Prediction: Winner

Overall, the oddsmakers seem to be more with it for Season 11, perhaps in part through the good fortune of an outstanding performance by Jessica Sanchez last night. I’m not sure they would have nailed it otherwise.

Here’s what they have this year:

Jessica Sanchez – 4/1

Phillip Phillips – 4/1

Hollie Cavanaugh – 7/1

Colton Dixon – 7/1

Skylar Laine – 7/1

Elise Testone – 8/1

Joshua Ledet – 10/1

Shannon Magrane – 10/1

Heejun Han – 14/1

Erika van Pelt – 16/1

Deandre Brackensick – 25/1

Jermaine Jones – 25/1

Jeremy Rosado – 33/1

Some quick reactions: They’ve got Phillip Phillips as co-favorite because he fits the David Cook, Kris Allen, Lee DeWyze mold of guitar playing “hunk” (of sorts). I personally have some trouble with his constipated-sounding delivery (“bluesy” to some, I’m sure) but if you’re looking for a dead-on comparable, keep in mind that he’s several years younger than those guys. Colton Dixon’s got a weird vibe for me–he looks like Beckham crossed with a skunk–but I’ve heard of at least one teen girl who thinks he’s cute. Anyway, I think he’s roughly in the right ballpark. Skylar Laine is overrated to me–don’t see her being good enough to win it all–but she can put on a Kellie Pickler-good showing. Testone and Magrane are both solid, but in jeopardy from a sub-par first week. Heejun Han is where the value is, if you’re wagering. Not sure I can wrap my head around his winning the whole competition, but he’s a guy that really breaks the mold–you can throw out your comparables. He sings surprisingly well, he’s bright, he’s funny, and he’s really, really likeable. And the guy who doesn’t belong is Jeremy Rosado, in the competition through (I believe) the personal bias of J Lo. He’s not a bad singer, but guys like Adam Brock and Reed Grimm had a chance to do real damage.

Captain Shane Doan reflects on the Coyotes’ commitment to team defense under coach Dave Tippett, while carefully staying respectful to Phoenix netminders. PHX_Doan_120110

Phoenix picks up a point after losing in the shootout, despite being essentially doubled up in shots, but Tippett considers it a good road effort under the circumstances. PHX_Tippett_120110

Philadelphia at New York Islanders, 1/12/2012

Newcomer Wayne Simmonds is enjoying the Flyers’ style of play (vs. the Kings’). PHI_Simmonds_120112

Scott Hartnell likes the youthful attitude of the 2011-12 squad. PHI_Hartnell_120112

And coach Peter Laviolette likes what his team has done despite their injuries and having many rookies in the lineup. PHI_Laviolette_120112

Toronto at New York Islanders, 1/24/2012

Clarke MacArthur credits age and experience for his increased success in Toronto, compared with Buffalo. TOR_MacArthur_120124

Borowiecki’s leading the team in plus-minus at +5. He picked up an assist for his sixth point in 24 games, and even dropped the gloves in the first period. He’s a character guy playing a solid all-around game that just might get a chance on the NHL level. If you’re looking for a potential overachiever, Borowiecki’s your man.

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I’ve got a backlog of audio files that I need to post to the site. I’ll try to get around to them!

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I also got a chance to chat with general manager Chuck Fletcher, in particular about Minnesota’s improved farm system. Fletcher’s especially high on Charlie Coyle, who he sees as a two-way, top-six center that will be able to compete against the best in the Western Conference.

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Through the first period-plus the Islanders took it to the defending Stanley Cup champions, leading 2-0 while the game featured Al Montoya vs. Tim Thomas. Evgeni Nabokov (small sample!) did look a tad shaky in giving up three goals as Boston overtook the Isles for the 3-2 win, but a lot of that was the Bruins turning it on.

But when I spoke with Milan Lucic, Tim Thomas, and head coach Claude Julien, I wanted to know about the big themes: Can the Bruins be as good again? Can they repeat? How do they approach the season? How can they improve the power play?

Listen to the responses to my questions below:

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A few excerpts, to whet your appetite, should you choose to purchase this fine product:

“In Bergeron’s first three seasons for the Bruins–under head coaches Mike Sullivan and Dave Lewis–the Quebec City native established himself as a great all-around forward, settling in at a near-elite 0.9 points per game. He was a deadly finisher on the man advantage (31 power play goals) and averaged more than two minutes of penalty-killing time.”

Wait…did you say “deadly finisher” in the same breath as Bruins’ power play? Huh? Whazzat?

There’s more:

“…Bergeron’s power play production has dropped by a whopping 1.83 points per 60 minutes. And judging by his improved even-strength production, it’s scheme–and not diminishing skill–that’s the cause.”

“Watch video of Bergeron’s early-career success on the man advantage, and you’ll see him pouring in goals from the half wall and left faceoff circle.”

Intrigued? There are tons of stats tables provided in support, and plenty more analysis.

In the end, I concluded that Bergeron was losing power play production in many different ways: through the diminishing number of power play opportunities per game in the NHL (a major factor that you rarely hear mentioned), diminished PP usage under Julien, and the poor choice of using Bergeron at the point instead of at forward.

Thanks again to Matt and the folks at Maple Street Press for giving me the opportunity to do the article.