Ice Hockey Metrics

Suggestions to improve the World Cup:

1. No more changing the ball for the World Cup. It’s backfired this time, big time. No one can weight a cross properly or keep a shot under the crossbar.

2. Expand to 40 teams. First of all, more countries will be happy to be in. But the main reason is to expand the Group stage to 4 games, with 8 Groups of 5 teams. Given 4 games per team in the Group stage, ties are going to be deemphasized. Teams will be more willing to play offensively if they will likely trade a Win for a Loss that way - 3 points – rather than played scared for a couple of Ties – 2 points.

Just remember: I suggested this first.

Based on futures odds prior to the start of the World Cup, here are a few sides that look to be underrated and overrated.

Underrated: France +1400 (though perhaps not given a coach that benches their two best players), Cameroon +10000, Switzerland +15000, Algeria +40000

Overrated: Brazil +450, Italy +1200, Chile +4000, Paraguay +5000, Greece +10000, S0uth Africa +12500

Spain won Euro 2008 convincingly and goes into the World Cup as a co-favorite with Brazil. Though Brazil has the pedigree and history of World Cup success, Spain has none – No doubt, that weighs in the minds of some as far as establishing who the favorites are. Therefore, what does Spain bring to the competition? Only the best squad in the tournament. Of the other teams, Switzerland’s greater depth of talent gives them the best chance to advance.

*Limited minutes – Use with caution

Without using that cliche…We’ll just say that Group G is one heck of a tough group. Putting aside the sideshow of the North Korean squad, the remaining three teams are legitimate contenders for the title – with the Ivory Coast and Portugal giving up very little in quality to Brazil. No matter how you cut it, one contender–possibly even proud Brazil–will fall.

*Low minutes – don’t take the rating too seriously.

Italy looks set to sail through the group stage, due to a relatively easy set of initial opponents, including a very weak New Zealand and an unremarkable Paraguay – though Slovakia has a puncher’s chance in the group. Still–check out the player ratings on the other top sides here at World Football Metrics–Italy lacks the high end players of the other powers. If Italy is to go deep into the tournament, they must do so with superior team play, to make up for a lack of elite parts. A repeat championship looks particularly unlikely.

*Lacking minutes for reliable Total Rating

Holland went undefeated in qualifying, but find itself in a group where advancing to the Round of 16 will still be challenging. Group E features three teams with many top international players. Especially with Arjen Robben still sidelined, Cameroon is not far behind the Netherlands in top quality talent. If either should stumble, Denmark is a solid squad that could advance.

*Limited minutes

#2008-9

Grant Wahl of SI picked Serbia as his surprise team of the tournament, predicting a deep run that will get them to the semifinals. Do the stats back it up? Let’s check out Group D:

*Limited minutes – Take these ratings with a grain of salt.

Though it’s true that Ghana has comparable numbers of players in the top European leagues, Serbia has several top quality performers from these leagues, led by Manchester United star fullback Nemanja Vidic. Australia relies on two fine EPL players in particular: goaltender Mark Schwarzer of Fulham and midfielder Tim Cahill of Everton. What’s consider to be a somewhat weaker German squad than usual still looks awfully stacked.

All eyes in America are on Group C –well, all eyes that care about soccer in any case–with the United States matching up against the powerhouse squad from England. Gametime is 2:30 on Saturday. Algeria plays Slovenia on Sunday.

Let’s break it down, to help get a better idea of USA’s chances today, as well as their chances to advance:

*Limited minutes – Stats shown for “entertainment value” only.

Stacked with players from EPL-dominating Chelsea and Manchester United, England has a formidable lineup. USA might be better off with Hahnemann than Tim Howard in goal. There’s been big talk about Oguchi Onyewu, Michael Bradley and Jozy Altidore, but their European numbers don’t back up that talk - yet.

Both Algeria and Slovenia have their share of players in Europe’s premier leagues, but as you can see above, they are generally lower quality players in these leagues.

The two Saturday morning games feature the start of Group B, with Korea Republic vs. Greece kicking things off at 7:30 Eastern, followed by group favorites Argentina vs. Nigeria at 10:00.

Using the Total Rating metric–A players’ Goal Difference per 96 minutes of 11 vs 11 play, adjusted for strength of teammates and strength of opposition during all GF and GA, compared to average for his league–here’s how the players on the Group B teams stack up (for players in the five top European leagues):

*Minutes played are low enough where TR may not reflect actual level of player.

#Lee Young-Pyo played Dortmund in 2008-9.

Though having trouble finding playing time at Manchester United, Korean captain Park Ji-Sung has been a monster by TR over the past two seasons. 

Theofanis Gekas, forward for Hertha Berlin, is the standout player for Greece.

Quantity, but what about quality? The majority of the Nigerian squad plays in the top European leagues, but a glance here shows that many of them rank as below average performers in those leagues. Still, they should have the inside track to advance over Korea and Greece. One of my greatest wishes: plenty of goals for Obafemi Martins, because that translates into many backflips.

Argentina is clearly the class of Group B and shouldn’t have any trouble going through to the Round of 16. While Lionel Messi is considered by many to be the best player in the world, he’s got a lot of talent surrounding him on this Argentine squad.

Our soccer metrics are starting to come together! – Yeah, almost in time for the World Cup.

Let’s take a look some familiar players from the two Group A matches that kick off the 2010 FIFA World Cup on Friday, by Total Rating, a rate stat similar to ESTR we’ve developed for hockey:

Stats shown are relative to their leagues. Zero is league average.

*Limited minutes – Take these stats with a grain of salt.