Ice Hockey Metrics

Here’s what I had last season for predictions. A miss at #3 but you can’t complain otherwise!

Odd competition this year in that I have a hard time seeing most of these contestants having a legit shot to win. In any case, let’s give this a whirl again:

Jeremy Rosado, 19 year old from Valrico, Florida

Hopes to be more like Anthony Federov (4th place, Season 4) than Jorge Nunez (12th/13th place, Season 8).

But the latter sounds about right.

Prediction: 13th place

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Erica Van Pelt, 26 year old from South Kingstown, Rhode Island

Hopes to be more like Lakisha Jones (4th place, Season 6) than Julia DeMatio (10th place, Season 2).

But might have more in common with semifinalists Sabrina Sloan (Season 6) and Jennifer Hirsh (Season 11). Weird wild card by the judges.

Prediction: 12th place

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Shannon Magrane, 16 year old from Tampa, Florida

Hopes to be more like Lauren Alaina (2nd place, Season 10) than Melissa McGhee (12th place, Season 5).

But McGhee is from Tampa as well.

Prediction: 11th place

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Deandre Brackensick, 17 year old from San Jose, California

Hopes to be more like Corey Clark (5th place, Season 2) than A.J. Gill (8th place, Season 1) but he might not even make it that far.

Pretty random comparable: Sanjaya Malakar (7th place, Season 6)

Prediction: 10th place

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Elise Testone, 28 year old from Charleston, South Carolina

Hopes to be more like Nikki McKibbin (3rd place, Season 1) than Didi Benami (10th place, Season 9), but none of her Finalist comparables are close to her age. Ruh-roh.

Semifinalist comparables: In-comparables such as Jackie Tohn (Season 8), Haley Johnsen (Season 11), Samantha Cohen (Season 2).

Prediction: 9th place

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Joshua Ledet, 19 year old from Westlake, Louisiana

Hopes to be more like Jacob Lusk (5th place, Season 10) than Chikezie (10th place, Season 7).

But he’s skinnier than both of those guys.

Prediction: 8th place

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Jermaine Jones, 25 year old from Pine Hill, New Jersey

Hopes to be more like Michael Lynche (4th place, Season 9) than Charles Grigsby (11th place, Season 2).

Yes, Ruben Studdard (1st place, Season 2) was 25 and is a comparable. But no.

Prediction: 7th place

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Skylar Laine, 18 year old from Brandon, Mississippi

Hopes to be more like Diana DeGarmo (2nd place, Season 3) than Kristy Lee Cook (7th place, Season 7).

She’s got several 17-19 year old comparables in the bottom half of the Finals, though.

Prediction: 6th place

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Hollie Cavanaugh, 18 year old from McKinney, Texas

Hopes to be more like Jordin Sparks (1st place, Season 6) than Kellie Pickler (6th place, Season 5).

Frankly, most of her 18ish comparables finished in the bottom half of the Finals, but none were from her neck of the woods.

Prediction: 5th place

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Phillip Phillips, 21 year old from Leesburg, Georgia

Hopes to be more like Chris Daughtry (4th place, Season 5) than Casey Abrams (6th place, Season 10).

Remember, despite the guitar, David Cook, Kris Allen, and Lee DeWyze did not come up as comparables.

Prediction: 4th place

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Colton Dixon, 2o year old from Murfreesboro, Tennessee

Hopes to be more like Blake Lewis (2nd place, Season 6) than Casey Abrams (6th place, Season 10).

We know what to do with the guitar-playing guys, but the piano throws me off.

Prediction: 3rd place

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Heejun Han, 22 year old from New York City, New York

Hopes to be more like Joshua Gracin (4th place, Season 2) than Anoop Desai (6th/7th place, Season 8).

But I think he breaks the mold. No comparable. Actually–maybe William Hung, but only on the comic appeal level. Everything else is Idol.

Prediction: 2nd place

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Jessica Sanchez, 16 year old from San Diego, California

Hopes to be more like Jordin Sparks (1st place, Season 8 ) than Allison Iraheta (4th place, Season 8).

Another high one: Jasmine Trias (3rd place, Season 3)

Prediction: Winner

For Season 10, here is what I had to say about the odds.

Overall, the oddsmakers seem to be more with it for Season 11, perhaps in part through the good fortune of an outstanding performance by Jessica Sanchez last night. I’m not sure they would have nailed it otherwise.

Here’s what they have this year:

Jessica Sanchez – 4/1

Phillip Phillips – 4/1

Hollie Cavanaugh – 7/1

Colton Dixon – 7/1

Skylar Laine – 7/1

Elise Testone – 8/1

Joshua Ledet – 10/1

Shannon Magrane – 10/1

Heejun Han – 14/1

Erika van Pelt – 16/1

Deandre Brackensick – 25/1

Jermaine Jones – 25/1

Jeremy Rosado – 33/1

Some quick reactions: They’ve got Phillip Phillips as co-favorite because he fits the David Cook, Kris Allen, Lee DeWyze mold of guitar playing “hunk” (of sorts). I personally have some trouble with his constipated-sounding delivery (“bluesy” to some, I’m sure) but if you’re looking for a dead-on comparable, keep in mind that he’s several years younger than those guys. Colton Dixon’s got a weird vibe for me–he looks like Beckham crossed with a skunk–but I’ve heard of at least one teen girl who thinks he’s cute. Anyway, I think he’s roughly in the right ballpark. Skylar Laine is overrated to me–don’t see her being good enough to win it all–but she can put on a Kellie Pickler-good showing. Testone and Magrane are both solid, but in jeopardy from a sub-par first week. Heejun Han is where the value is, if you’re wagering. Not sure I can wrap my head around his winning the whole competition, but he’s a guy that really breaks the mold–you can throw out your comparables. He sings surprisingly well, he’s bright, he’s funny, and he’s really, really likeable. And the guy who doesn’t belong is Jeremy Rosado, in the competition through (I believe) the personal bias of J Lo. He’s not a bad singer, but guys like Adam Brock and Reed Grimm had a chance to do real damage.

Phoenix at New York Rangers, 1/10/2012

Captain Shane Doan reflects on the Coyotes’ commitment to team defense under coach Dave Tippett, while carefully staying respectful to Phoenix netminders. PHX_Doan_120110

Phoenix picks up a point after losing in the shootout, despite being essentially doubled up in shots, but Tippett considers it a good road effort under the circumstances. PHX_Tippett_120110

Philadelphia at New York Islanders, 1/12/2012

Newcomer Wayne Simmonds is enjoying the Flyers’ style of play (vs. the Kings’). PHI_Simmonds_120112

Scott Hartnell likes the youthful attitude of the 2011-12 squad. PHI_Hartnell_120112

And coach Peter Laviolette likes what his team has done despite their injuries and having many rookies in the lineup. PHI_Laviolette_120112

Toronto at New York Islanders, 1/24/2012

Clarke MacArthur credits age and experience for his increased success in Toronto, compared with Buffalo. TOR_MacArthur_120124

You may know that I’m a Clarkson University alumni from…way back. Therefore, it was a treat to get to speak with former Golden Knights captain Mark Borowiecki after this afternoon’s AHL contest between the Connecticut Whale (yes, they play Brass Bonanza) and the Binghamton Senators–a 4-3 come from behind win by the visiting Sens.

Borowiecki’s leading the team in plus-minus at +5. He picked up an assist for his sixth point in 24 games, and even dropped the gloves in the first period. He’s a character guy playing a solid all-around game that just might get a chance on the NHL level. If you’re looking for a potential overachiever, Borowiecki’s your man.

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I’ve got a backlog of audio files that I need to post to the site. I’ll try to get around to them!

The locker room was nearly cleared out by the time we got in, so here’s the full 2:06 of media questions to newcomer Dany Heatley (who would play against his former team, the Senators, the following night). Not necessarily known for his defense, Heatley made a nice veteran play on a John Tavares breakaway, lifting his stick from behind to disrupt a point blank shot on goal. At the time, it preserved a close game late.

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I also got a chance to chat with general manager Chuck Fletcher, in particular about Minnesota’s improved farm system. Fletcher’s especially high on Charlie Coyle, who he sees as a two-way, top-six center that will be able to compete against the best in the Western Conference.

Better late than never, here are my Q&A’s with Jose Theodore, Jacob Markstrom, Ed Jovanovski, and coach Kevin Dineen of the Panthers, from opening night against the Islanders:

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The minor league arena in Bridgeport, Connecticut had their largest ever crowd, and for a preseason hockey game at that. Though the crowd had solid amounts of supporters for both teams, the Boston fans that traveled to Bridgeport clearly all came dressed in Bruins regalia. Black and gold must have outnumbered blue and orange at least 80/20, if not 90/10.

Through the first period-plus the Islanders took it to the defending Stanley Cup champions, leading 2-0 while the game featured Al Montoya vs. Tim Thomas. Evgeni Nabokov (small sample!) did look a tad shaky in giving up three goals as Boston overtook the Isles for the 3-2 win, but a lot of that was the Bruins turning it on.

But when I spoke with Milan Lucic, Tim Thomas, and head coach Claude Julien, I wanted to know about the big themes: Can the Bruins be as good again? Can they repeat? How do they approach the season? How can they improve the power play?

Listen to the responses to my questions below:

BOS_Lucic_111001 – BOS_Thomas_111001 – BOS_Julien_111001

Before I dove headlong into writing and editing Hockey Prospectus 2011-12 (available here), I spent a solid week or so in late June researching Patrice Bergeron of the Cup-winning Boston Bruins for my friend Matt Kalman, editor of The Bruins Blog and the Maple Street Press Bruins Annual 2011-12. It turned into a 3,000-word sabermetric essay that you’ll find on the two-way forward in that magazine, available online and in newstands now.

A few excerpts, to whet your appetite, should you choose to purchase this fine product:

“In Bergeron’s first three seasons for the Bruins–under head coaches Mike Sullivan and Dave Lewis–the Quebec City native established himself as a great all-around forward, settling in at a near-elite 0.9 points per game. He was a deadly finisher on the man advantage (31 power play goals) and averaged more than two minutes of penalty-killing time.”

Wait…did you say “deadly finisher” in the same breath as Bruins’ power play? Huh? Whazzat?

There’s more:

“…Bergeron’s power play production has dropped by a whopping 1.83 points per 60 minutes. And judging by his improved even-strength production, it’s scheme–and not diminishing skill–that’s the cause.”

“Watch video of Bergeron’s early-career success on the man advantage, and you’ll see him pouring in goals from the half wall and left faceoff circle.”

Intrigued? There are tons of stats tables provided in support, and plenty more analysis.

In the end, I concluded that Bergeron was losing power play production in many different ways: through the diminishing number of power play opportunities per game in the NHL (a major factor that you rarely hear mentioned), diminished PP usage under Julien, and the poor choice of using Bergeron at the point instead of at forward.

Thanks again to Matt and the folks at Maple Street Press for giving me the opportunity to do the article.

All quiet? Yes, other than attending the 2011 NHL Entry Draft, it’s been a lot of under the radar hockey work for me this summer. I’ve been working hard on Hockey Prospectus 2011-12, both writing the team essays and player profiles for the Atlantic Division teams again, as well as doing all of the editing for the endeavor. We’ve got a few weeks of hard work left on our latest annual, but it won’t be too long until you can get your hands on it! You’re really going to like some of the enhancements that we’ve made.

Head on over to Audio Files to hear my Q&A with Islanders owner Charles Wong and general manager Garth Snow. Also check out media reactions–including mine–thanks to this video compilation by John Zadrozny of Islanders Top Shelf.

Now a Washington Capital, veteran forward Marco Sturm led the Bruins in ESTR, followed not surprisingly by captain Zdeno Chara and David Krejci (+0.66). On the negative side of the ledger, promising young winger Milan Lucic (-0.62) was among the worst B’s, on weak defensive numbers.

After turning in fine seasons for the Thrashers in 2009-10, Nik Antropov and Johnny Oduya didn’t have as much to show for this past season. And concern was beginning for blue chip blueline prospect Zach Bogosian, whose age-21 season will be a referendum on his career going forward.

Before Alex Pietrangelo made his mark in 2010-11, former Maple Leaf Carlo Colaiacovo was having a quietly impressive 2009-10. Conversely, captain Eric Brewer did not have a good season on the blue line.

It’s not too encouraging to see Cam Barker at the top of Minnesota’s 2009-10 ESTR list, given the fact that he spent three-quarters of the season with Chicago. While ESTR should take into account the change in teammates, there’s really no telling what the results would have been. It is encouraging, though, to see captain Mikko Koivu right up there. On the other end, Chuck Kobasew was never a good pickup from Boston, while Brent Burns certainly owes some of his perceived success to his prowess on the power play.

One of the big whozzats for ESTR in 2009-10 was Scott Parse of the Kings. Small sample size? Jarret Stoll (+1.02) and Drew Doughty (+0.73) also rated quite highly. On the negative side of the ledger, there’s the defensive black hole known as Jack Johnson, and it’s sure not a small sample size there–can’t figure out the long term contract he got this season for the life of me. Incidentally, future Hab Jeff Halpern would have come in second-to-last (-0.62), as an above-average defensive player who was well below-average offensively.

The top Shark by Even Strength Total Rating in 2009-10 was Manny Malhotra (+0.42/+0.65/+1.07), not listed here due to his signing with Vancouver. Logan Couture scored very well (+0.81) in limited minutes, which boded well for his “rookie season”.

Mikhail Grabovski carried a good ESTR in 2009-10 toward a generally fine 2010-11 while Carl Gunnarsson wasn’t able to capitalize as much in his age-24 season. And while it’s not surprising to see Mike Komisarek down at the bottom of the list, it’s partially thanks to the likes of Jeff Finger, Garnet Exelby and others coming in just under 500 minutes of ESTOI.

Not Henrik Sedin, the Hart Trophy winner. Nope, in 2009-10, Daniel Sedin was the better player. Yes, Henrik came in third on the Canucks, at +1.28. With Daniel’s injury, the season actually provides a rare snapshot of seeing one brother play without the other.

Well, we sure know that the Devils’ ESTRs will look vastly different for 2010-11. But looking at the prior season, it’s not at all surprising to see Zach Parise and Travis Zajac at an elite level by this metric…because that’s where they were at in 2008-09 as well. The worst regular in 2009-10 was Jay Pandolfo (-1.11), but he’s not listed here as he was out of the league by 2010-11. Quadruple-A player Rod Pelley (-0.64) didn’t meet our 500 minute threshold. For a third pairing defenseman, Mike Mottau actually didn’t rate that poorly.

Captain Eric Staal was not only the best Hurricane at even strength in 2009-10, but he put up a pretty decent score given Carolina’s struggles in the first half of the season. Not surprisingly, Jussi Jokinen came in second in a breakout season for him. Veteran Erik Cole, who had a fine 2010-11, had a poor prior season in limited minutes.

The surprising Phoenix Coyotes of 2009-10 were led in Even Strength Total Rating by Wojtek Wolski at +1.29 in 1200 minutes, but since he’s no longer with the team, I’ve listed Taylor Pyatt and Keith Yandle. Yandle further solidified himself as a superior defenseman in 2010-11. On the flip side, ESTR was yet another stat that showed how washed up Ed Jovanovski has become.

It’s not the Predators’ big names (if you can call them that) which you find at the top of the ESTR standings for 2009-10, but two relatively young players that scored rather highly. In fact, Nashville’s name players nearly all came in with right around league-average scores, though Ryan Suter came in at a creditable +0.33.

Vancouver-Nashville: Kent Wilson’s preview didn’t paint a pretty picture. Maybe the Preds can hold out for six. Canucks in 6.

Detroit-San Jose: Really a super matchup. The Sharks had a fantastic second half, but the superior coach and the battle-tested veterans should edge this out. Red Wings in 7.

Washington-Tampa Bay: I wouldn’t completely rule out an upset, but the Caps are playing too good against a team that relies on special teams to win the day. Don’t see that happening in 4 of 7 games. Capitals in 6.

Philadelphia-Boston: Another marquis matchup of wonderfully deep teams. You have to like the Bruins goaltending here. A little revenge factor as well from last time around? The Flyers are waking up now…they’re always dangerous even though they had a rough finish to the season. They’re harder to kill off than Jason. Bruins in 7, although I can’t say that I feel comfortable about that pick.

No surprise, Sidney Crosby led the Pens in Even Strength Total Rating…but Matt Cooke second? Jordan Staal, Tyler Kennedy and Chris Kunitz all had very good scores as well, perhaps pointing towards why Pittsburgh has fared relatively well in the seconed half of 2010-11, even without their superstar or two. No, check that. Evgeni Malkin came in second-last (given Max Talbot’s just under 500 minutes and the fact that Ruslan Fedotenko’s with the Blue Shirts) at ES, behind the immortal Craig Adams.

Not surprisingly, Alex Ovechkin’s ESTR–like pretty much all of his stats–kicked ass in 2009-10. Jeff Schultz either a very good or a very fortunate season (more the latter). Rookie defenseman John Carlsson was very promising in limited minutes. David Steckel was second-last at -0.18, though I’ve listed Jason Chimera since Steckel’s no longer with the Caps.

In case you were wondering, Teemu Selanne–yes, the power play man–came in a close third at +0.76, while Matt Beleskey was the other big underachiever at -0.72.

Here are the Flames best even strength men from two seasons ago. Curtis Glencross and Rene Bourque were third and fourth, while Chris Higgins and Ales Kotalik were third and fourth from the bottom.

Here we go with another barn-burner, the Blue Jackets:

Meh.

I’m going to abbreviate the format of the “best and worst of”, to finish things up. Two best and two worst that remained on the roster at the beginning of 2010-11 will be shown; no new additions to the roster shown.

Yawn, Panthers.

Season’s almost over isn’t it? Time for me to get in gear for wrapping up a look at who were each team’s best performers at even strength FOR 2009-10, taking into account strength of teammates and opposition. Sorry about the delay, but I want to put a wrap on last season before proceeding to 2010-11.

Kurtis Foster would have made the top four if he had been re-signed. Even more so, the “bottom end” guys shown were in reality more like middle-of-the-pack performers for the Lightning, as a lot of the underperformers either didn’t qualify (with less than 500 minutes) or weren’t with the team any longer by the beginning of 2009-10. The middling overall ESTRs of the likes of St. Louis, Stamkos and others fed right into a team that was very average at even strength in 2010-11 despite the offensive firepower.

The flip side were the multiple additions, both last offseason and during this season. Most of Yzerman’s adds were middling even strength performers. Blues castoff Eric Brewer was worse than that.

Here’s a sound bite from back in January, when I asked Roberto Luongo to look ahead to how the Canucks might fare differently in the playoffs this time around.

Washington-New York: The high-energy Rangers have outscored the Capitals 15-1 since their first meeting in early November. Bruce Boudreau on the hot seat. New York in 7.

Philadelphia-Buffalo: The Flyers have been known to play possum for weeks at a time, so don’t count them out–they’re a very hard team to figure. Still, the Sabres have been one of the hottest teams of the second half, and Bobrovsky’s already seen a lot of shots against for a rookie. Buffalo in 7.

Boston-Montreal: The Bruins are one of the most complete teams in the playoffs, and Tim Thomas has had an All-World season. The Habs struggled down the stretch, Carey Price hasn’t shown himself to be even an average playoff netminder and Montreal doesn’t have some of the positive signs–I saw them–of last regular season. Boston in 5.

Pittsburgh-Tampa Bay: Give a ton of credit to Dan Bylsma and company for finishing strong without Crosby and Malkin. Still–understatement–this team isn’t a contender without Sid. Tampa Bay in 7.

Vancouver-Chicago: The Blackhawks have paid all year long for the cap mess that Stan Bowman inherited, barely sneaking into the playoffs. They’ve got some top-six firepower and a couple of fine defensemen, but their depth is in tatters. This is the wrong incarnation of the Canucks facing the wrong incarnation of the Blackhawks. Maybe next year, again. Vancouver in 6.

San Jose-Los Angeles: Despite a strong Goal Difference, the Kings are a sham. They were, even before their MVP Anze Kopitar’s injury. They’re injured, and Jonathan Quick isn’t good enough to steal the series from one of the best teams of the second half. San Jose in 5.

Detroit-Phoenix: The Red Wings struggled to the finish line, losing a chance to face a weaker Kings squad. While the well-coached and deep but starless Coyotes should make Nick Lidstrom and company sweat it out again, ultimately look for a repeat of last season’s result. Detroit in 7.

Anaheim-Nashville: Two intriguing teams, top-heavy vs. spread-out talent. I’m not so worried about the Ducks goaltending–whoever plays should perform fairly well. The series will depend a lot on the Preds’ discipline, as the Ducks are deadly on the power play. Tie? All right, Anaheim in 7 on some kind of supernatural effort at just the right time from my man Selanne. That might be my heart talking.

Looking ahead…Boston over San Jose?

The Islanders gave the playoff-bound Penguins another great battle in what was their last home game of the season, but eventually fell 4-3 in the shootout. After the game, I asked head coach Jack Capuano about New York’s power play, and young winger Jesse Joensuu about his development. Click here for audio.

Following a hard fought 4-2 come-from-behind victory against a very game New York Islanders squad, the Carolina Hurricanes spoke about how their team is playing and their chances at making the postseason. Listen to my questions for Erik Cole, Joe Corvo and head coach Paul Maurice here.

The Stanley Cup-winning Chicago Blackhawks were really, really deep in 2009-10, outperforming other teams throughout the lines and defensive pairings they rolled out. Of course as everyone knows, cap realities have hit their bottom-six depth and third pairing defense this season…which is why they’re still fighting for a postseason berth, with half of a championship-quality roster.

Yes, the bottom four there are the worst (remaining) Blackhawks. It’s hard to tell, with the positive ESTRs! And yes, Duncan Keith’s in the bottom four…but that’s among players still remaining on the squad this season.

It’s pretty amazing that Chicago’s worst (remaining) regular, Tomas Kopecky, was essentially a league-average forward. That’s how deep the Blackhawks were. On the other hand, it’s pretty amazing that coach Quenneville played him on the first line.

Another aspect worth noting are the players that were shipped out to alleviate the cap situation. GM Stan Bowman made the right decisions to keep and/or lock up his best players (all right, with the exception of Hjalmarsson, which was a mistake) and got rid of nice-to-have but not essential players like Kris Versteeg (+0.08), Andrew Ladd (-0.25), Dustin Byfuglien (-0.33), Brent Sopel (-0.41) and John Madden (-0.42). Almost perfectly played.

You might wonder where 2010-11 Hart Trophy candidate Jonathan Toews stood last season. It was right below the top-four cut, at +0.49 ESTR…on the strength of above-average offense.

My father just found out a few days ago that a good friend of his–and our family’s–the gifted Finnish artist Tello Anttila passed away earlier this month at the age of 68. Multi-talented, intelligent and kind-hearted, it’s a great loss to her family, friends and admirers.

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Following a 2-1 win in Long Island that kept their slim postseason hopes alive, I caught up with a few of the Thrashers, and their head coach. A former Blue (Chris Mason) and a former Islander (Rob Schremp) spoke about various aspects of their individual performance as well as Atlanta’s team play. Their coach Craig Ramsay, a former Sabre, and one of the greatest defensive forwards ever, weighed in on Atlanta’s defensive woes. Listen to the audio here.

Following a second straight loss where the Bruins gave up an early lead (the previous night, Boston lost 4-3 in OT to the Sabres), I got a chance to ask a few big picture questions from netminder Tim Thomas and head coach Claude Julien. Check out the updated Audio Files.

I mentioned last week about the crazy odds out there for the semifinals (Julie Zorilla…snicker). Here’s what the oddsmakers say for the American Idol finals, which begin tonight:

Lauren Alaina 7/2
Casey Abrams 5/1 (too high)
Pia Toscano 7/1 (too high)
Paul McDonald 7/1 (too high)
James Durbin 8/1
Jacob Lusk 8/1
Scotty McCreery 9/1 (way too low – put your money right here)
Thia Megia 9/1 (too low)
Karen Rodriguez 18/1 (about right, although I wonder if having JLo as a judge will help – dark horse)
Stefano Langone 20/1
Naima Adedapo 28/1 (outside chance to catch on as a Fantasia-type, but she is much older)
Ashthon Jones 35/1 (right on)
Haley Reinhart 35/1

Demographically, some American Idol contestants are more likely to do well than others, although talent of course is the biggest consideration. Unless you’re from Alabama, that is. I took it all into account, in coming up with my predictions below:

Haley Reinhart, 20 year old from Wheeling, Illinois

Hopes to be more like Kelly Clarkson (1st place in Season 1) than Jessica Sierra (10th place in Season 4)

But it might get as bad as: Lindsey Cardinale (12th place in Season 4)

Interesting semi-finalist comparable: Antonella Barba (Season 6)

Prediction: 13th place

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Ashthon Jones, 24 year old from Goodlettsville, Tennessee

Hopes to be more like Lil Rounds (6th/7th place in Season 8) than Paige Miles (11th place in Season 9)

Absolute ceiling: Kimberly Locke (3rd place in Season 2)

But she reminds me more of semi-finalist Alexandrea Lushington (Season 7)

Prediction: 12th place

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Stefano Langone, 21 year old from Kent, Washington

Hopes to be more like Matt Giraud (5th place in Season 8) than Matthew Rogers (11th place in Season 3)

Absolute ceiling: Joshua Gracin (4th place in Season 2)

Prediction: 11th place

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Pia Toscano, 22 year old from Howard Beach, New York

Hopes to be more like Kelly Clarkson (1st place in Season 1) than Julia DeMato (10th place in Season 2)

So maybe she might be like: Gina Glocksen (9th place in Season 6)

Prediction: 10th place

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Naima Adedapo, 26 year old from Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Hopes to be more like LaToya London (4th place in Season 3) than Nadia Turner (8th place in Season 4)

Hopefully, it doesn’t get as bad as: Mandisa (9th place in Season 5)

Prediction: 9th place

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Paul MacDonald, 26 year old from Nashville, Tennessee

Hopes to be more like Taylor Hicks (1st place in Season 5) than Ace Young (7th place in Season 5)

So maybe he might be like: Danny Gokey (3rd place in Season 8)

On the other hand, he might be like: Scott MacIntyre (8th place in Season 8)

Prediction: 8th place

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Karen Rodriguez, 21 year old from New York, New York

Hopes to be more like Katharine McPhee (2nd place in Season 5) than Vanessa Olivarez (12th place in Season 2)

So maybe she might be like: Jennifer Hudson (7th place in Season 3)

But also profiles like semifinalists such as: Suzy Vulaca (Season 3) and Julie Zorilla (Season 10)

Prediction: 7th place

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Casey Abrams, 20 year old from Idyllwild, California
vHopes to be more like Jason Castro (4th place in Season 7) than Michael Sarver (10th place in Season 8)

Absolute ceiling: Chris Daughtry (4th place in Season 5)

Interesting semi-finalist comparable: Sundance Head (Season 6)

Prediction: 6th place

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Jacob Lusk, 23 year old from Compton, California

Hopes to be more like Ruben Studdard (1st place in Season 2) than Chikezie (10th place in Season 7)

So maybe he might be like: George Huff (5th place in Season 3)

Prediction: 5th place

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James Durbin, 22 year old from Santa Cruz, California

Hopes to be more like David Cook (1st place in Season 7) than…frankly the lower level comparables aren’t that compelling.

Who’s not a demographic comparable: Adam Lambert (2nd place in Season 8)

Absolute ceiling: Cook, Lee Dewyze (1st place in Season 9) or Kris Allen (1st place in Season 8)

Prediction: 4th place

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Thia Megia, 16 year old from Mountain House, California

Hopes to be more like Jasmine Trias (3rd place in Season 3) or Allison Iraheta (4th place in Season 8) than Katie Stevens (8th/9th place in Season 9)

Absolute ceiling: Diana DeGarmo (2nd place in Season 3)

Prediction: 3rd place

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Lauren Alaina, 16 year old from Rossville, Georgia

Hopes to be more like Carrie Underwood (1st place in Season 4) than Kellie Pickler (6th place in Season 5)

She’s way better than: Kristy Lee Cook (7th place in Season 7)

Prediction: Runner-up

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Scotty McCreery, 17 year old from Garner, North Carolina

Hopes to be more like David Archuleta (2nd place in Season 7) than John Stevens (6th place in Season 3)

He’s way better than: Tim Urban (7th place in Season 9) or Bucky Covington (8th place in Season 5)

Absolute ceiling: David Cook (1st place in Season 7), Lee Dewyze (1st place in Season 9) or Kris Allen (1st place in Season 8)

Prediction: Winner

After their seventh loss in eight games, a weak effort against the New York Islanders, David Backes spoke about his disappointment with the Blues lackluster play. I also got a chance to ask coach David Payne about his vision of how St. Louis should be playing, as well as asking him to weigh in on new additions Kevin Shattenkirk and Chris Stewart. Listen to the latest Audio Files.

Click over to the Audio Files page to get the latest sound bytes, from after Minnesota’s 3-1 win at Madison Square Garden. The Wild won despite being doubled up on shots by the Rangers.

When I got a chance to view Philadelphia in the early season, I was impressed at how they rallied to edge the Islanders with a strong third period, after they’d played a so-so 40 minutes. Those Flyers, and the Flyers that we’ve observed all season long have seemed vastly different than the Jekyll and Hyde team that I referred to in my Team Prospectus.

Incidentally, their on- and off-ice leadership–head coach Peter Laviolette and de facto captain Chris Pronger–impresses me more than that of just about any other team I’ve come across this season. I certainly think that it’s part of what was responsible for their Finals run last season and their success this season.

Let’s look back at my Big Picture observations from November and see if we still agree or not:

Big Question #1: After a great postseason for the Flyers, is the inconsistency of the last regular season finally behind them?

Answer: Signs are promising, but time will tell.

In hindsight: Thanks, Karnak for the sphinx-like response (there’s more detail in the Team Prospectus article). Anyway, yes, Philly’s obviously doing great, with a good chance to repeat in the Finals.

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Big Question #2: What can Philadelphia expect in goal?

Answer: If the last few seasons are any indication, look for the Flyers to find a way to piece together league average goaltending. But shouldn’t they shoot for more?

In hindsight: Bobrovsky’s been a revelation, but are we sure he’ll do it in the postseason? Next season? We know how variable goaltender performance can be. I can almost guarantee that the Flyers will stand pat in net going into the postseason, but I believe my thoughts from November are still valid. The right move could make them the favorite for the Stanley Cup.

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Big Question #3: Can the Flyers make another run at the Stanley Cup this season?

Answer: Absolutely, yes. And with top notch goaltending, they’d be among the favorites.

In hindsight: Dead on.

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All right, let’s examine which Flyers were the best at even strength in 2009-10, in what you’ll remember was a very up-and-down season for them offensively:

Dan Carcillo the best Flyer of 2009-10? Yeah, and that’s not even accounting for his massive net penalties total. After that, Philly had the exceptional first defense pairing of Chris Pronger and Matt Carle, providing above-average play on both offense and defense. Rounding out the top four was the resurgent Danny Briere, who made up for suspect defensive play with an excellent offensive contribution.

As far as the bottom, anyone who followed the Flyers, even solely in the playoffs, could tell you about the weak underbelly of their defense. In the postseason, Laviolette was loathe to give his third pairing many minutes at all, and when he did, the results were usually not pretty. But Ville Leino in the bottom four? For those that remember the wonderful playoffs of the Briere-Hartnell-Leino line, don’t forget about Leino’s checkered past. His year began horrendously in Detroit–so much so that the Red Wings were willing to practically give him away to Philadelphia.

As far as new faces, the Flyers’ weak defense was bolstered by the addition solid veteran Sean O’Donnell from the Kings. The highly suspect trade for Tampa Bay’s Andrej Meszaros has worked out about as well has can be expected, while the Bolts’ Matt Walker has washed out to the AHL after a handful of games with Philadelphia.

Free agent Jody Shelley–who played the end of 2009-10 with the rival Rangers–isn’t listed due to only logging 379 minutes of ESTOI, but he surprisingly posted a +0.74 ESTR due to a high defensive component.

Recent acquisition Kris Versteeg, from Chicago, while added with much fanfare, is roughly a league-average forward.

Back in November, I covered the Montreal Canadiens in my Team Prospectus series for Hockey Prospectus. How do you think the Habs have fared on the three Big Questions that I posed for Montreal? They were:

Big Question #1: Can the Habs win with Carey Price in goal?

Answer: Yes, but don’t expect a run to the conference finals with Carey Price. As Jaroslav Halak is proving to be a very special netminder, the extra millions may have been worth it.

In hindsight: Price has gone through hot and cold stretches but has outperformed Halak to date.

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Big Question #2: What does top defenseman Andrei Markov mean to the team, and can they count on him to be healthy?

Answer: Andrei Markov is a true difference maker–the difference between making the playoffs or not, the difference between advancing in the playoffs or not. But his health clearly isn’t a given, and it’s of paramount importance to the Canadiens.

In hindsight: The Canadiens will make the playoffs…but yes, Markov is an injury-prone difference-maker.

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Big Question #3: What can Montreal expect from Tomas Plekanec, and for how long?

Answer: Despite the fast start, Plekanec should finish right around where VUKOTA has predicted for 2010-11, and 2011-12 as well.

In hindsight: Plekanec’s already at 11.9 GVT, exceeding VUKOTA–second on the Canadiens after Price.

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So looking back on 2009-10, who were the most valuable Canadiens skaters at even strength? Let’s check out their ESTR’s:

Up front, we see a lot of strength in the Habs’ top six forwards, from Mike Cammalleri, Brian Gionta and perhaps surprisingly from Benoit Pouliot. And as you’d figure, Andrei Markov was the most important Canadien.

Conversely, three of the four worst performers were defensemen, with Ryan O’Byrne and Hal Gill helping only on the defensive end, while Paul Mara hurt on both ends of the ice. Like O’Byrne and Gill, fan favorite Maxim Lapierre also hurt the Habs greatly on offense.

Midseason acquisition James Wisniewski’s addition from the Islanders may help more on the power play than at 5-on-5, while former King Jeff Halpern fit the mold of a defensive forward.

Click over to the Audio Files page to get my latest locker room interviews, like this one from February 19th with Los Angeles Kings head coach Terry Murray:

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Hello again! Sorry about the long gap in between posts, but with being named Managing Editor of Hockey Prospectus during Thanksgiving Week of 2010, most of my hockey energies have gone towards the www.hockeyprospectus.com website. It’s made for some late nights.

I’m trying to find some time to do some big catchup on the Even Strength Total Rating pieces here at Ice Hockey Metrics, but in the meantime, I’ve made one addition that might interest you…posting some audio files.

In conjunction with the Team Prospectus columns that I’m doing for Hockey Prospectus–I’m seeing every NHL team this season–I’ve now got short interview snippets from 25 teams. I’ll be posting them over on the Audio Files page of this website. Check out the first batch of them, from the Toronto Maple Leafs, New Jersey Devils and San Jose Sharks!

Interestingly, the Sabres top performers at even strength last season were all forwards. And if you’re looking for one reason why Buffalo got upset by Boston in the first round, look no further than the early series injury to Thomas Vanek, the lingering foot issues with Tim Connolly (one of the league’s top 20 by ESTR in 2008-09 as well) and the complete absence of Jochen Hecht. This season, the Sabres have another injury problem with Jason Pominville still missing due to the concussion suffered at the hands of Chicago blueliner Niklas Hjalmarsson. All defense-no offense third liners Paul Gaustad and Mike Grier made the Sabres’ bottom four, along with two defensemen, aged and overused captain Craig Rivet and dazed and confused sophomore Chris Butler. Thankfully, head coach Lindy Ruff has dialed back Rivet’s power play usage this season, while Butler looks like a new man.

 Jordan Leopold was a solid offseason acquisition for the blue line, but Shaone Morrisonn–aside from some toughness–was definitely not. And while Rob Niedermayer put forth a decent season with the Devils, it was on the heels of a truly hideous 2008-09 with the Ducks. Don’t…expect…much.

Quick hit here on the Avalanche. Check out my Team Prospectus analysis over at www.puckprospectus.com for more thoughts on Colorado (although this one requires a Premium subscription).

Personally, I’m a bit surprised to see veteran forward Milan Hejduk at the top of the list. Maybe he’s fallen off a bit to this season. Many consider young defenseman Ryan Wilson to have gotten lucky–we’ll see how he performs in 2009-10. Future captain (?) Chris Stewart–criticised for poor Corsi numbers–was an interesting mix of great offense and poor defense, which sounds right to me. Ex-King Kyle Quincey rounded out the top four. Brandon Yip would have come in third at +0.52 had he qualified with 81 more even strength minutes. Ryan O’Reilly, Kyle Cumiskey, Scott Hannan, and Cody McLeod were the Avs bottom four among returning players. Their worst performer–Marek Svatos, -1.30–is no longer with the team, no surprise. 

New acquisition Daniel Winnik is already providing the Avs with an excellent bottom six forward and penalty killer: